13.电力下降（2063）

Passage Thirteen

Powering down

电力下降

【1】The energy transition could make India even more unequal. India's energy transition is well underway，generation capacity(ability) from renew-able sources nearly doubled in the five years to last November, from 72 gigawatts(GW) to 133GW.

能源转型可能会使印度更加不平等，印度的能源转型正在顺利进行。截至去年11月，可再生能源发电能力在五年内几乎翻了一番，从72千兆瓦增至133千兆瓦。

【2】The government of Naren-dra Modi has set a target of generating 500Gw from renewable sources, or half the projected(planned) total capacity, by 2030.

纳伦德拉•莫迪政府设定的目标是，到2030年可再生能源发电能力达到500千兆瓦，占预计总发电能力的一半。

【3】But coal will remain an important part of the mix. According to a study by NITI Aayog, a government think-tank, demand for it will not peak until 2035-2040.

然而，煤炭仍将是能源结构的重要组成部分。印度政府智库印度国家研究院的一项研究显示，对煤炭的需求要到2035至2040年才会达到峰值。

【4】That helps explain why India has given itself until 2070 to hit net-zero emissions(discharges). This should provide latitude to develop its economy—and also give the regions(areas) most reliant on fossil fuels time to adjust.

这有助于解释为什么印度要在2070年之前实现净零排放的目标。这既为印度发展经济提供了空间，也为最依赖化石燃料的地区提供了调整时间。

【5】India's mineral riches are largely(mainly) in its eastern and central states. These are among its poorest places. without proper(suitable) planning, dwindling(reducing) coal revenues could throw their economies into disarray(chaos).

印度的矿产资源主要集中分布在东部和中部各邦，这些地方也是印度最贫穷的地方。如果没有适当的规划，煤炭收入的减少可能会使这些地区的经济陷入混乱。

【6】Neither can they rely on much investment in renewables. In a cruel quirk of geography, six of the eight Indian states that receive the most sunshine and wind are in the prosperous south and west.

与此同时，他们也不能依赖可再生能源方面的大量投资。印度奇怪的地理现状十分残酷，在八个拥有日照和风力最充足的邦中，有六个位于繁荣的南部和西部。

【7】Consider Jharkhand. It is India's biggest coal-producing state, with 28% of proven reserves. It is also grindingly poor: 28% of its people are classified as living in extreme poverty, the second-highest rate of any state.

以贾坎德邦为例，已证实它是印度最大的产煤邦，已探明储量占印度全国的28%。同时，该邦也非常贫穷。28%的人口被列为极端贫困人口，在所有邦中排名第二。

【8】Mining is a big chunk of its economy, accounting for 78% of non-tax revenues. Of its 24 districts(areas),18 produce coal or host coal-dependent industries.

矿业是该邦经济的重要组成部分，占非税收收入的78%。在其24个地区中，有18个地区生产煤炭或拥有依赖煤炭的工业。

【9】Yet of India's 1050GW wind-and-solar potential，Jharkhand accounts for just 18Gw, or 1.7%.By contrast, four states in south India and two in its west, along with Madhya Pradesh in the middle and the desert state of Rajasthan in the northwest, account for two-thirds.

然而，在印度1050千兆瓦的风能和太阳能潜力中，贾坎德邦仅占18千兆瓦，即总量的1.7%。相比之下，印度南部的四个邦、西部的两个邦、中部的中央邦和西北部的沙漠邦拉贾斯坦邦占了三分之二。

【10】"The power vector will change from flowing east to west or centre to south to the reverse...It is inevitable(unavoidable)," says Sutirtha Bhattacharya, a former chairman of Coal India, a state-owned firm that is the world's biggest coal producer.

“电力传输（流向）将从东部到西部或中部到南部变为相反的方向，这是不可避免的。”世界上最大的煤炭生产商、国有企业印度煤炭公司前董事长苏蒂尔塔·巴塔查里亚说。

【11】India's energy economy is already shifting. Nearly 75% of the country's installed solar and wind generation capacity in 2020 was in the six southern and western states. Less than 5% was in ten northern, eastern and central states, excluding Madhya Pradesh.

印度的能源经济已经在发生转变。2020年，印度近75%的太阳能和风能发电装机容量分布在南部和西部的六个邦，只有不到5%分布在北部、东部和中部的十个邦，中央邦除外。

【12】Though coal production and consumption are still growing, coal's share in the electricity-generation mix declined from 57% to 48% in the five years to last November. States such as Jharkhand face a prospect of having to buy energy from other states, even as their revenues from coal decrease.

尽管煤炭生产和消费仍在增长，但在截至去年11月的过去五年间，煤炭在发电能源结构中所占的比例已从57%降至48%。贾坎德邦等邦面临不得不从其他邦购买能源的前景，甚至是在煤炭收入减少的情况下。

【13】Their fiscal deficits are likely to balloon, according to a working paper by Rohit Chandra and Sanjay Mitra for the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, a research institution in Delhi.

德里一家研究机构国家公共财政与政策研究所的罗希特·钱德拉和桑贾伊·米特拉撰写的工作报告显示，印度的财政赤字可能会急剧膨胀。

【14】Jharkhand, the state that will be hardest-hit, is already thinking ahead. In late 2022 it set up a task-force to plan for what it calls a "just transition".

受影响最严重的贾坎德邦已经开始未雨绸缪。2022年底，该邦成立了一个特别工作组，为所谓的“公正过渡”制定计划。

【15】"We were considered to be blessed because we have so much coal. Today people are saying it's a curse," says Ajay Kumar Rastogi, the task-force's chairman." But we see it as an opportunity for the state to plan."

“我们曾被认为是幸运的，因为我们拥有如此多的煤炭资源。如今，人们却说这是一种诅咒，”工作组主席阿杰·库马尔·拉斯托吉说，“但我们将其看作进行规划的一个机会。”

【16】The task-force is charged with devising(formulating) policies to help exploit(utilize) whatever solar potential Jharkhand has, perhaps on disused(waste) coalfields, and to incentivise green industries such as hydrogen.

该工作组负责制定政策，以帮助充分利用贾坎德邦可能存在的太阳能潜力（也许是在废弃的煤田），并激励氢能等绿色产业的发展。

【17】It is also working to ensure its policies are implemented(executed) by the state's bureaucracy. This is an example to other affected states.Chhattisgarh, a similar case, is said to be considering setting up a task-force of its own.

该任务组也在努力确保该邦的官僚体系能够切实执行这些政策。这是其他受影响的邦的一个榜样。恰蒂斯加尔邦也是类似这样的情况，据说该邦正在考虑成立自己的特别工作组。

【18】Limiting the negative fallout(influence) of the energy transition will be important not just for such states, but also for regions that stand to benefit and for India overall.

限制能源转型的负面影响不仅对这些邦至关重要，而且对那些可能受益的地区和整个印度也同样如此。

【19】As part of its federal compact(agreement), richer states help fund poorer ones by paying more into central government coffers(funds) than they draw out.If Jharkhand and its peers grow poorer, southern and western states will find themselves footing a larger bill.

作为联邦协议的一部分，富裕的邦通过向中央政府国库缴纳比提取更多的资金来资助贫穷的邦。如果贾坎德邦及其同类邦越来越穷，南部和西部各邦将需要支付更多的费用。

【20】So far, write Mr Chandra and Mr Mitra, the "central government ministries have shown little interest" in thinking through, and mitigating(alleviating), such economic consequences(outcomes). That needs to change.

钱德拉和米特拉写道，迄今为止，中央政府各部委对思考和减轻此类经济后果兴趣不大。这种情况必须改变。