29.之后再看

Passage Twenty-Nine

Ask again later

之后再看

【1】November brings with it the beginning of the end of the year. The first frost signals winter has arrived. Thanksgiving marks the start of the holiday season. And from the hallowed halls of every large investment bank come pages and pages of “outlook” research. Their arrival means this year’s economic story is mostly written. Next year is what matters now.

十一月是年底的开始，第一场霜冻是冬天的开始，感恩节是假期的开始。在每家大型投资银行神圣的大厅里，你能看到一页又一页的“展望”研究报告。这些报告意味着，今年的经济局势基本上已成定局。眼下最重要的是明年。

【2】Often an investor thumbing through all these will experience a sense of déjà vu. With all the vanity of small differences, researchers will elaborate on why their forecast for growth or inflation deviates by perhaps 30 or 40 hundredths of a percentage point from the “consensus” of their peers.

投资者在翻阅这些报告时往往会有一种似曾相识的感觉。尽管存在种种微不足道的差异，但研究人员将详细说明，为什么他们对经济增长或通胀的预测与同行的“共识”可能相差30或40个百分点。

【3】Yet this year’s crop(result) did not deliver soporific sameness. Goldman Sachs expects(predicts) growth in America to be robust, at 2.1%, around double the level that economists at ubs foresee.

然而，今年的结果并非千篇一律、令人乏味。高盛预计，美国的经济增长将保持强劲，增长率将达到2.1%，比瑞银（UBS）经济学家预测的高出一倍左右。

【4】Some banks see inflation falling by half in 2024. Others think it will remain sticky, only dropping to around 3%, still well above the Federal Reserve’s target. Expectations for what the Fed will end up doing with interest rates range, accordingly, from basically nothing to 2.75 percentage points of rate cuts.

一些银行预计2024年通胀率将下降一半，而另一些则认为通胀将保持稳定，仅降至3%左右，仍远高于美联储的目标。对于美联储最终将如何调整利率的预期也因此不一而足，从基本上什么都不做到降息2.75个百分点。

【5】The differences between these scenarios come down to more than simple disagreement over growth prospects(foregrounds). Economists at Goldman might think growth and inflation will stay hot whereas those at ubs think both will slow down sharply.

这些情况的差异不仅仅是对增长前景的分歧。高盛的经济学家可能认为经济增长和通胀都将保持高位，而瑞银的经济学家则认为两者都将大幅放缓。

【6】But Bank of America expects comparative stagflation, combining only a modest reduction(decline) in inflation with a pretty sharp drop in growth (and therefore little movement in the Fed’s policy rates).

但美国银行预计会出现相对滞胀，即通胀率只会小幅下降，经济增长则会大幅下滑相结合（因此美联储的政策利率几乎不会变动）。

【7】Morgan Stanley expects the opposite: a version of the “immaculate(perfect) disinflation” world in which inflation can come back to target without growth dropping below trend much at all.

摩根·士丹利的预期恰恰相反，他认为这是一种“完美的通货紧缩”。在这种情况下，通胀可以回到目标水平，而经济增长根本不会大幅低于趋势水平。

【8】That each of the outcomes bank economists describe feels eminently(very) plausible(believable) is a testament to the sheer level of uncertainty out there. Almost everyone has been surprised in turn by how hot inflation was, the speed of rate rises required to quell it and then the resilience of the economy. It is as if being repeatedly wrongfooted has given economic soothsayers more freedom: if nobody knows what will happen, you might as well say what you really think.

银行经济学家所描述的每一种结果都让人觉得非常可信，这充分表明当前存在着极大的不确定性。几乎每个人都对高涨的通胀、抑制通胀所需的加息速度以及经济的韧性感到惊讶。这就好像是反复的挫败给了经济预言家更多的自由，如果没有人知道会发生什么，不妨说出你的真实想法。

【9】The result is a bewildering(confusing) array of analogies. Economists at Deutsche Bank think the economy is heading back to the 1970s, with central bankers playing whack-a-mole with inflation.

结果是一系列令人困惑的相似情形。德意志银行的经济学家认为，美国经济正在倒退回20世纪70年代，央行行长们在通胀问题上玩起了“打地鼠”游戏。

【10】Those at ubs expect a “90s redux”—a slowdown in growth as rates bite, followed by a boom as new technology drives productivity gains. Jan Hatzius of Goldman thinks comparisons with decades past are “too simple” and may lead investors astray.

瑞银的经济学家则预计会出现 “上世纪90年代的重演”，利率下降导致经济增长放缓，但新技术推动了生产率的提高，经济将突飞猛进。高盛集团的简·哈丘斯认为，与过去几十年进行比较“过于简单”，可能会让投资者误入歧途。

【11】There is one similarity in the stories economists are telling, however. Many seem to think the worst is over. “The last mile” was the title of Morgan Stanley’s outlook document; “The hard part is over,” echoed Goldman.

不过，经济学家们的说法有一个相似之处。许多人似乎认为最糟糕的时期已经过去了。摩根·士丹利展望文件的标题是“最后一英里”；高盛的标题是“艰难的阶段已然过去”，戈德曼回应道。

【12】They might hope that this applies to both the economy and the difficulty of forecasting(predicting). In 2024 the contradictions in America’s economy should resolve themselves. Perhaps in 2025 there will be consensus once more.

他们可能希望这不仅适用于经济，也适用于预测的困难。2024年，美国经济的矛盾应该会自行化解。也许到2025年，研究人员将再次达成共识。