44.光彩熠熠 (2146)

Passage Forty-Four

All that sparkles

光彩熠熠

【1】The appeal of a diamond, for a ring on a finger or to string on a necklace, rests on its sparkle(twinkle). Its precise(exact) value is determined by how well the stone is cut, its colour, its size (also called its “carat”) and whether it contains(has) flaws(defects). The clearer, heavier, closer to colourless and more perfectly cut the rock, the better.

无论是手指上的戒指还是脖上的项链，钻石的吸引力在于其闪耀的光芒。钻石的准确价值由切割工艺、色泽、大小（用“克拉”衡量）以及含有的瑕疵程度决定。越干净、越重、越接近无色且切割工艺越好的钻石，其价值也越大。

【2】The appeal of a diamond for an investor is that, in addition to being nice to look at, it has historically offered a steady return on investment. Given the opacity(unclearness) of the market, and the broad variety of gems(jewels) that are available, long-run price data are scarce(lacking).

对于投资者来说，除了光鲜的外表外，钻石的吸引力在于它历来是一项能带来稳定回报的投资。鉴于市场不透明，售卖的宝石品类繁多，钻石的长期价格数据就较为稀缺。

【3】But a paper by Luc Renneboog of Tilburg University, which was published in 2015, analysed thousands of auctions each year, finding that the average return between 1999 and 2012 rivalled those of stocks and property. Holders of diamonds would have earned a handsome 8% or so a year.

但蒂尔堡大学的吕克·仁尼伯格在2015年发表了论文，分析了1999年至2012年每年数千场拍卖会，发现钻石在此期间的平均回报率能够与股票和房地产相媲美。钻石持有人一年能获得约8%的可观回报。

【4】Recently, though, these steady returns have given way to enormous(huge) volatility. De Beers, a consortium that has long monopolised the supply of diamonds, has reduced the price of two-to-four carat uncut stones—a popular category because they can be made into one-to-two carat engagement rings—by 40%, according to Bloomberg, a news service.

 然而近期，市场巨大的波动取代了稳定的投资收益。据新闻机构彭博社的消息，长期垄断钻石供给的财团戴比尔斯将2-4克拉未切割原石的价格调低了40%，这类原石很受欢迎，因为它们能够加工成1-2克拉的订婚钻戒。

【5】On September 13th the company announced that it would re-run its iconic(symbolic) “a diamond is forever” advertising campaign in an attempt to boost demand(requirement).

9月13日，戴比尔斯宣布将重新开展其标志性的“钻石恒久远”广告营销活动，拉动需求。

【6】Stable returns in the past were partly brought about by steady demand. Just as with the investment case for gold, another rare and precious(valuable) commodity, the logic for holding diamonds tends to be strongest during periods of economic uncertainty.

过去的稳定收益部分来自于稳定的需求。正如对黄金（另一个量少且珍贵的商品）的投资情况一样，在经济环境不确定的时期，钻石投资变得更加吸引人。

【7】At the same time, the main use of diamonds is in jewellery, which means that prices have tended to do well during periods of prosperity(flourish), too.

与此同时，钻石主要用在珠宝中，这意味着钻石的价格在经济繁荣时也会表现良好。

【8】But the most important factor was monopolistic supply. For more than a century De Beers managed to dominate(rule) the production of gems. This market structure facilitated(promoted) steady price increases in two ways, as Mr Renneboog has noted.

但最重要的因素是垄断供给。一个多世纪以来，戴比尔斯成功统治了钻石生产。仁尼伯格的文章提出，这种市场结构从两方面促进了钻石价格的稳定增长。

【9】First, by stockpiling supplies De Beers created scarcity. Second, the firm curbed(contained) speculation, and the volatility it brings. Although De Beers controlled some 80% of the global supply of diamonds in the 1980s, since then its share has been eaten into by competitors, which include Alrosa, a Russian rival. The company now produces just a third of supply.

首先，通过限制供应，戴比尔斯制造了稀缺性。其次，戴比尔斯遏制了投机买卖，进而遏制了投机买卖引发的价格波动。尽管戴比尔斯在上世纪80年代控制了全球约80%的钻石供应，但自那以后它的份额就不断受竞争者蚕食，其中包括俄罗斯竞争对手埃罗莎。戴比尔斯如今仅控制了三分之一钻石的供应。

【10】Another problem is emerging(appearing) from laboratories. They are producing artificial gems, which are made by applying pressure to carbon, rather than digging stones from the ground, and are identical(same) to the naked eye.

另一问题出自实验室。实验室正在通过给碳施加压力制造人造钻石，而不是从土里开采天然钻石，从肉眼上看天然钻石和人造钻石别无二致。

【11】Such stones have been available since the 1980s, but even as recently as 2018 made up a tiny fraction of the market, at just a few percentage points. In the years since, more lab-grown jewels have entered the market—and their market share has risen to around a tenth.

自上世纪80年代以来，人造钻石就已出现，但直到2018年，人造钻石的市场占有率依旧很小，只有几个百分点。自2018年后，更多实验室制造的钻石进入了市场，市场份额已经上升到约10%。

【12】De Beers may have inadvertently hastened this transition. The company began to sell lab-grown diamonds at rock-bottom prices in 2018, when such stones fetched about 80% of the price of mined ones. The goal was to differentiate between the two types of gems, in order to diminish(weaken) the appeal of lab-grown stones.

戴比尔斯或许无意之中加速了上述转变。该公司从2018年开始以极低的价格售卖人造钻石，当时人造钻石的价格还是天然钻石的80%。戴比尔斯的目标是把两种钻石的档次区分开来。以此减弱人造钻石的吸引力。

【13】The Clear Cut, a New York-based purveyor(supplier) of engagement rings, has adopted guerrilla marketing tactics(strategies) to make the same point. It offers customers who buy a ring worth $10,000 or more a free lab-grown alternative, which can be used as a “travel ring” when visiting dubious(suspect) places. Many lab-grown stones now fetch just 20-30% of the price of similar mined stones.

总部位于纽约的婚戒供应商鲜明公司采取了游击营销策略来达到相同的目的。只要顾客购买的婚戒价值1万美金以上，就免费赠送一枚人造钻石婚戒，在前往不安全地点时作为“旅行戒指”。现在很多人造钻石的售价仅为天然钻石的20-30%。

【14】De Beers argues that, as the supply of lab-grown gems accelerates, the price gap(difference) between the two types of stone will continue to widen, making the newcomers unappealing for engagements.

戴比尔斯认为，随着实验室培育宝石的供应加速增长，这两种宝石之间的价格差距将继续扩大，使得人们不想将人造钻石用于订婚。

【15】If recent price movements are anything to go by, though, the tactic appears likely to backfire—after all, mined prices are plunging in the wake of lab-grown ones.

然而，从近期的价格波动来看，低价售卖人造钻石的策略似乎会适得其反，毕竟，天然钻石的价格紧跟着人造钻石暴跌。

【16】Admittedly, this may not be entirely the result of a structural shift in the market. American couples date for about three years before getting engaged, and thanks to covid-19 very few people were out and about meeting potential husbands or wives in 2020. An unusually small number of people are probably getting engaged this year.

诚然，这或许不全是市场结构性变化的结果。美国情侣在订婚前大约会谈三年的恋爱，且在2020年受新冠疫情影响，很少有人出门约会。今年可能只有少数人订婚。

【17】But this is the sort of fluctuation(wave) an all-powerful diamond cartel would have been able to smooth out by reducing supply. Slashing prices instead is a clear indication of diminished market power.

但一个强有力的钻石财团本可以通过减少供给来缓和这一波动。而价格却下降了，这表明钻石财团的市场控制力下降了。

【18】That is good news for those looking to pop the question or acquire a new trinket. It is rather less appealing for those considering investing in the gems.

对于想要求婚或是购买新首饰的人来说，这是个好消息。但对那些考虑投资钻石的人来说，这可能就没有那么吸引人了。