6.Onwards and Upwards(2146)

Passage Six

This text is abridged from an essay in The Economist on December 19, 2009.

本文节选自2009年12月19日《经济学人》上的一篇文章。

Onwards and Upwards

Author Unknown

【1】In the rich world today, the idea of progress has become impoverished. Through complacency and bitter experience, the scope of progress has narrowed. The popular view is that, although technology and GDP advance, morals and society are treading water or, depending on your choice of newspaper, sinking back into decadence and barbarism. On the left of politics these days, "progress" comes with a pair of ironic quotation marks attached; on the right, "progressive" is a term of abuse.

【2】It was not always like that. There has been a tension between seeking perfection in life or in the afterlife. Optimists in the Enlightenment and the 19th century came to believe that the mass of humanity could one day lead happy and worthy lives here on Earth. They were bursting with ideas for how the world might become a better place.

【3】Some thought God would bring about the New Jerusalem, others looked to history or evolution. Some thought people would improve if left to themselves, others thought they should be forced to be free; some believed in the nation, others in the end of nations; some wanted a perfect language, others universal education; some put their hope in science, others in commerce; some had faith in wise legislation, others in anarchy. Intellectual life was teeming with grand ideas. For most people, the question was not whether progress would happen, but how.

【4】The idea of progress forms the backdrop to a society. In the extreme, without the possibility of progress of any sort, your gain is someone else's loss. If human behavior is unreformable, social policy can only ever be about trying to cage the ape within, Society must in principle be able to move towards its ideals, such as equality and freedom, or they are no more than cant and self-delusion. So it matters if people lose their faith in progress. And it is worth thinking about how to restore it.

【5】By now, some of you will hardly be able to contain your protests. Surely the evidence of progress is all around us? That is the case put forward in "It's Getting Better All the Time, by the late Julian Simon and Stephen Moore then at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank in Washington, D.C. Over almost 300 pages they show how vastly everyday life has improved in every way.

【6】For aeons people lived to the age of just 25 or 30 and most parents could expect to mourn at least one of their children. Today people live to 65 and, in countries such as Japan and Canada, over 80; outside Africa, a child's death is mercifully rare. Global average income was for centuries about $200 a year; a typical inhabitant of one of the world's richer countries now earns that much in a day. In the Middle Ages about one in ten Europeans could read; today, with a few exceptions, the global rate is comfortably above eight out of ten. In much of the world, ordinary men and women can vote and find work, regardless of their race. In large parts of it they can think and say what they choose. If they fall ill, they will be treated. If they are innocent, they will generally walk free.

【7】It is an impressive list，even if you factor in some formidably depressing data... The trouble is that a belief in progress is more than a branch of accounting. The books are never closed. Wouldn't nuclear war or environmental catastrophe tip the balance into the red? And the accounts are full of blank columns. How does the unknown bookkeeper reconcile such unknowable quantities as happiness and fulfillment across the ages?

【8】Even if you show how miserable the past was, the belief in progress is about the future. People born in the rich world today think they are due a modicum of health, prosperity and equality. They advance against that standard, rather than the pestilence, beggary and injustice of serfdom. That is progress.

【9】The idea of progress has a long history, but it started to flower in the 17th century. Enlightenment thinkers believed that man emancipated by reason would rise to ever greater heights of achievement. The many manifestations of his humanity would be the engines of progress: language, community, science, commerce, moral sensibility and government. Unfortunately, many of those engines have failed.

【10】Some supposed sources of progress now appear almost quaint. Take language: many 18th- century thinkers believed that superstitions and past errors were imprinted in words... Purge the language of rotten thinking, they believed, and truth and reason would prevail. The impulse survives, much diminished, in the vocabulary of political correctness. But these days few people believe in language as an agent of social change.

【11】Other sources of progress are clothed in tragedy. The Germanic thought that individual progress should be subsumed into the shared destiny of a nation is fatally associated with Hitler. Whenever nationalism becomes the chief organizing principle of society, state violence is not far behind. Likewise, unspeakable crimes were committed by the ruling elite in the pursuit of progress, rather as they had been in the name of God in earlier centuries.

【12】The 20th century was seduced by the idea that humans will advance as part of a collective and that the enlightened few have the right，the duty even，to impose progress on the benighted masses whether they choose it or not. The blood of millions and the fall of the Berlin Wall, 20 years ago this year, showed how much the people beg to differ. Coercion will always have its attractions for those able to do the coercing, but, as a source of enlightened progress, the subjugation of the individual in the interests of the community has lost much of its appeal.

【13】Instead the modern age has belonged to material progress and its predominant source has been science. Yet, nestling amid the quarks and transistors and the nucleic acids and nanotubes, there is a question. Science confers huge power to change the world. Can people be trusted to harness it for good?

【14】The ancients thought not. Warnings that curiosity can be destructive stretch back to the very beginning of civilization. As Adam and Eve ate from the Tree of Knowledge, so inquisitive Pandora, the first woman in Greek mythology, peered into the jar and released all the world's evils. Modem science is full of examples of technologies that can be used for ill as well as good. Think of nuclear power，and of nuclear weapons; of biotechnology，and of biological contamination. History is full of useful technologies that have done harm...

【15】The point is not that science is harmful, but that progress in science does not map tidily onto progress for humanity. In an official British survey of public attitudes to science in 2008, just over 80% of those asked said they were "amazed by the achievements of science.,, However, only 46% thought that "the benefits of science are greater than any harmful effect." From the perspective of human progress, science needs governing. Scientific progress needs to be hitched to what we might call "moral progress." It can yield untold benefits, but only if people use it wisely. And to do that they must look outside science to the way people behave.

【16】It is a similar story with economic growth, the other source of material progress. The 18th century was optimistic that business could bring prosperity; and that prosperity, in its turn, could bring enlightenment. Business has more than lived up to the first half of that promise. As Joseph Schumpeter famously observed, silk stockings were once only for queens, but capitalism has given them to factory girls... Yet even the strongest defenders of capitalism would, by and large agree, that business needs governing, just as science does.

【17】Nor does economic progress broadly defined correspond to human progress. GDP does not measure welfare; and wealth does not equal happiness. Rich countries are, by and large, happier than poor ones; but among developed-world countries, there is only a weak correlation between happiness and GDP. And, although wealth has been soaring over the past half a century, happiness, measured by national surveys, has hardly budged.

【18】This is probably largely because of status-consciousness. It is good to go up in the world, but much less so if everyone around you is going up in it too. Once they have filled up their bellies and put a roof over their heads, people want more of what we call "positional goods." Only one person can be the richest tycoon. As wealth grows, the competition for such status only becomes more intense.

【19】And it is not just that material progress does not seem to be delivering the emotional goods. People also fear that mankind is failing to manage it properly，with the result that, in important ways, their children may not be better off than they are. The forests are disappearing; the ice is melting; social bonds are crumbling; privacy is eroding; life is becoming a dismal slog in an ugly world.

【20】But the worst nightmares have not come to life so far. Why? The answer depends on that last pair of engines of progress: moral sensibility in its widest sense, and the institutions that make up what today is known as "governance." These broadly liberal forces offer hope for a better future，more, indeed, than you may think.

【21】Right and left have much cause to criticize government. For the right, as Ronald Reagan famously said, the nine most terrifying words in the English language are: "I'm from the government and I'm here to help, For the left, government has failed to tame the cruelty of markets and lift the poor out of their misery. From their different perspectives, both sides complain that government regulation is often costly and ineffectual.

【22】Yet, even if it is often inefficient and low service quality, it also embodies moral progress. That is the significance of the assertion, in the American Declaration of Independence, that "all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights.It is the significance of laws guaranteeing free speech, universal suffrage, and equality before the law. And it is the significance of courts that can hold states to account when they, inevitably, fail to match the standards that they have set for themselves.

【23】Such values are the institutional face of the fundamental engines of progress，moral sensibility，The very idea probably sounds quaint and old-fashioned, but it is the subject of a powerful book by Susan Neiman, an American philosopher living in Germany.

【24】Ms. Neiman thinks that people yearn for a sense of moral purpose. In a world preoccupied with consumerism and petty self-interest, that gives life dignity. People want to determine how the world works, not always to be determined by it. It means that people's behavior should be shaped not by who is most powerful, or by who stands to lose or gain, but by what is right despite the costs. Moral sensibility is why people will suffer for their beliefs, and why acts of principled self-sacrifice are so powerful.

【25】People can distinguish what is and what ought to be. Torture was once common in Europe's market squares. It is now unacceptable even when the world's most powerful nation wears the interrogator's mask. Race was once a bar to the clubs and drawing-rooms of respectable society. Now a black man is in the White House.

【26】There are no guarantees that the gap between is and ought can be closed. Every time someone tells you to “be realistic" they are asking you to compromise your ideals. Ms Neiman acknowledges that your ideals will never be met completely. But sometimes, however imperfectly, you can make progress. It is as if you are moving an unattainable horizon. Human dignity，she writes, "requires the love of ideals for its own sake, but nothing requires that the love will be requited， Ms.Neiman asks people to reject the false choice between Utopia and degeneracy. Moral progress, she writes, is neither guaranteed nor is it hopeless. Instead, it is up to us.

第六课

向前和向上

作者未知

【1】在今天的富裕世界里，进步的概念已经变得贫乏了。由于自满和痛苦的经历，进步的范围缩小了。流行的观点是，尽管技术和GDP在进步，但道德和社会却在原地踏步，或者退回到颓废和野蛮之中，这取决于你选择的报纸。如今，在左翼政界，“进步”一词总是带有一对讽刺意味的引号;在右派看来，“进步”是一种辱骂。

【2】事情并不总是这样的。在今生追求完美还是来世追求完美之间一直存在着矛盾。启蒙运动和19世纪的乐观主义者开始相信，人类总有一天会在地球上过上幸福而有价值的生活。他们心中充满了如何让世界变得更美好的想法。

【3】一些人认为上帝会带来新耶路撒冷，另一些人则着眼于历史或进化。一些人认为，如果让人们自己去做，他们会进步;另一些人认为，应该强迫他们获得自由;一些人相信民族，另一些人相信民族的终结;一些人想要一种完美的语言，另一些人想要普及教育;有些人把希望寄托在科学上，有些人把希望寄托在商业上;一些人相信明智的立法，另一些人则相信无政府状态。知识分子的生活充满了伟大的思想。对大多数人来说，问题不是进步是否会发生，而是如何发生。

【4】进步的观念构成了一个社会的背景。在极端情况下，如果没有任何进步的可能性，你的收获就是别人的损失。如果人类的行为是不可救药的，那么社会政策就只能是试图把猿猴关在笼子里。原则上，社会必须能够走向它的理想，比如平等和自由，否则它们只不过是谎言和自欺欺人。因此，如果人们对进步失去信心，这很重要。如何恢复它是值得思考的问题。

【5】到现在为止，你们中的一些人可能已经无法控制自己的抗议了。进步的证据肯定就在我们身边吧?这就是已故的朱利安·西蒙和斯蒂芬·摩尔当时在华盛顿自由主义智库卡托研究所撰写的《一切都在变好》一书中提出的观点。在近300页的书中，他们展示了日常生活在各个方面的巨大改善。

【6】千万年来，人们只能活到25岁或30岁，大多数父母至少会哀悼他们的一个孩子。今天，人们活到65岁，在日本和加拿大等国家，活到80多岁;幸运的是，在非洲以外，孩子的死亡是罕见的。几个世纪以来，全球平均收入约为每年200美元;如今，一个世界上较富裕国家的典型居民一天的收入是这么多。在中世纪，大约十分之一的欧洲人识字;今天，除了少数例外，全球的这一比例轻松地超过了80%。在世界许多地方，普通男女不分种族，都能投票和找到工作。在很大程度上，他们可以想什么说什么。如果他们生病了，他们会得到治疗。如果他们是无辜的，他们通常可以逍遥法外。

【7】这是一份令人印象深刻的名单，即使你考虑到一些令人生畏的令人沮丧的数据……问题在于，对进步的信念不仅仅是会计的一个分支。这些书永远不会合上。核战争或环境灾难不会使收支平衡陷入赤字吗?账目上满是空白栏。这位不知名的簿记员是如何调和幸福和满足这些不可知的数字的?

【8】即使你表现出过去是多么悲惨，对进步的信念是关于未来的。今天，出生在富裕国家的人认为他们应该得到一点点健康、繁荣和平等。他们朝着这个标准前进，而不是朝着瘟疫、乞讨和不公正的奴役前进。这就是进步。

【9】进步的概念有着悠久的历史，但它在17世纪才开始开花结果。启蒙思想家们相信，被理性解放的人将会取得更大的成就。他的人性的许多表现形式将成为进步的引擎:语言、社区、科学、商业、道德敏感性和政府。不幸的是，很多引擎都失灵了。

【10】一些所谓的进步源泉现在看来几乎是古怪的。以语言为例:许多18世纪的思想家认为，迷信和过去的错误都印在文字上……他们相信，清除语言中的腐朽思想，真理和理性就会占上风。这种冲动在政治正确的词汇中幸存了下来，但已经大大减少了。但如今很少有人相信语言是社会变革的推动者。

【11】其他进步的源泉都披上了悲剧的外衣。日耳曼人认为个人的进步应该被纳入国家的共同命运，这种思想与希特勒有着致命的联系。只要民族主义成为社会的主要组织原则，国家暴力就会紧随其后。同样，统治精英在追求进步的过程中犯下了难以形容的罪行，而不是在早些世纪以上帝的名义犯下的罪行。

【12】20世纪被这样一种观念所吸引:人类将作为集体的一部分而进步，少数开明的人有权利一甚至有义务一把进步强加给愚昧的大众，不管他们是否愿意。20年前的今天，数百万人的鲜血和柏林墙的倒塌表明，人们有多么不同意。强制对那些有能力实施强制的人总是有吸引力的，但是，作为开明进步的一种来源，为了社会的利益而征服个人已经失去了很大的吸引力。

【13】相反，现代属于物质进步的时代，其主要源泉是科学。然而，在夸克、晶体管、核酸和纳米管之间，有一个问题。科学赋予改变世界的巨大力量。人们能被信任利用它做好事吗?

【14】古人不这么认为。关于好奇心可能具有破坏性的警告可以追溯到文明之初。就像亚当和夏娃吃知识之树的果子一样，好奇的潘多拉，希腊神话中的第一个女人，向罐子里窥视，释放了世界上所有的邪恶。现代科学中有很多技术既可以用来做好事，也可以用来做好事的例子。想想核能一和核武器;生物技术和生物污染。历史上充满了有害的有用技术……

【15】问题不在于科学有害，而在于科学的进步并没有整齐地反映出人类的进步。在2008年英国官方对公众对科学态度的调查中，超过80%的受访者表示他们“对科学的成就感到惊讶”。然而，只有46%的人认为“科学的好处大于任何有害的影响。”从人类进步的角度看，科学需要治理。科学进步需要与我们所说的“道德进步”联系在一起。它可以产生无数的好处，但只有当人们明智地使用它。要做到这一点，他们必须从科学之外的角度去观察人们的行为方式。

【16】物质进步的另一源泉，经济增长也是如此。18世纪人们乐观地认为商业可以带来繁荣;而这种繁荣反过来又能带来启蒙。商业已经实现了这一承诺的前半部分。正如约瑟夫·熊彼特的名言，丝袜曾经是女王的专用，但资本主义把它给了工厂女工……然而，即使是资本主义最坚定的捍卫者也会大体上同意，商业需要管理，就像科学需要管理一样。

【17】广义的经济进步也不符合人类的进步。GDP并不衡量幸福;财富并不等于幸福。总的来说，富国比穷国更幸福;但在发达国家，幸福感和GDP之间的相关性很弱。而且，尽管财富在过去半个世纪里一直在飙升，但根据全国调查，幸福感几乎没有变化。

【18】这可能主要是因为地位意识。在世界上出人头地是件好事，但如果你周围的每个人都出人头地，那就不那么好了。一旦填饱了肚子，有了栖身之所，人们就会想要更多我们所说的“地位商品”。只有一个人可以成为最富有的大亨。随着财富的增长，对这种地位的竞争只会变得更加激烈。

【19】不仅仅是物质上的进步似乎没有带来情感上的好处。人们还担心人类未能妥善管理它一其结果是，在重要的方面，他们的孩子可能不会比他们更好。森林正在消失;冰正在融化;社会纽带正在瓦解;隐私正在被侵蚀;在这个丑陋的世界里，生活正变得令人沮丧。

【20】但迄今为止，最可怕的噩梦还没有成真。为什么?答案取决于最后一对进步的引擎:最广泛意义上的道德感知力，以及构成今天所谓“治理”的制度。这些广泛的自由力量为更美好的未来提供了希望，事实上，比你想象的要多。

【21】左派和右派都有很多理由批评政府。对于右派来说，正如罗纳德•里根的名言所说，英语中最可怕的九个字是:“我来自政府，我是来帮忙的。”对于左派来说，政府没能驯服残酷的市场，也没能让穷人摆脱痛苦。双方都从不同的角度抱怨政府监管往往成本高昂且效果不佳。

【22】然而，即使它常常效率低下，服务不力，它也体现了道德的进步。这就是美国《独立宣言》中“人人生而平等，造物主赋予他们某些不可剥夺的权利”这句话的意义所在。这就是保障言论自由、普选权和法律面前人人平等的法律的意义。当各州不可避免地达不到它们为自己设定的标准时，法院能够追究各州的责任，这一点很重要。

【23】这些价值观是进步的基本引擎一“道德敏感性”的制度面貌。这个想法听起来可能有些古怪和过时，但它却是苏珊·内曼一本很有影响力的书的主题，她是一位住在德国的美国哲学家。

【24】内曼小姐认为人们渴望一种道德使命感。在一个充斥着消费主义和狭隘利己主义的世界里，这赋予了生命尊严。人们想要决定世界如何运行，而不是总是被世界决定。这意味着人们的行为不应该由谁最有权力，或者谁会得失来决定，而应该由不计代价的正确行为来决定。道德敏感性是人们愿意为自己的信仰受苦的原因，也是有原则的自我牺牲行为如此强大的原因。

【25】人们能区分什么是现在，什么是应该成为的。酷刑曾经在欧洲的集市广场上很常见。现在，即使世界上最强大的国家戴着审讯者的面具，这种行为也是不可接受的。种族问题曾经是进入上流社会的俱乐部和会客室的障碍。现在一位黑人入主白宫。

【26】谁也不能保证现实与现实之间的差距能够消除。每次有人告诉你要“现实一点”，他们是在要求你妥协自己的理想。内曼女士承认，你的理想永远不会完全实现。但有时，无论多么不完美，你都能取得进步。就好像你正在一个遥不可及的地平线。她写道:“人的尊严要求为理想而热爱理想，但没有什么要求这种热爱会得到回报。内曼女士要求人们拒绝在乌托邦和堕落之间做出错误的选择。她写道，道德进步既不能保证，也不是毫无希望。相反，这取决于我们自己。